Jim37F
Forum Deputy Chief
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Supposedly till the end of next month, April 30thAny idea how long the order is for? I’m supposed to go end of June to Maui but if it’s still in effect then I will need to change plans, again
Coronavirus Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Akulahawk
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SandpitMedic
Crowd pleaser
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Never forget.
Epstein did not kill himself.
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I meant Richard Epstein: Reason Podcast
There may be a reason why less apocolyptic analysis is not that easy to come across in the media, though plenty of it exists:
Where's the (Relatively) Positive Coronavirus News? Some Say it's Suppressed
Medium Deleted a Post by a Person Who Had the Audacity to use Math to Question the Hysteria
I've been saying since the beginning: however harmful the virus itself ends up being - and I make no claims whatsoever to having an answer to that, though as always, I am highly skeptical that the sky is actually falling - our hysterical reaction to it will likely cause much more lasting damage.
Ok. Hopefully it doesn’t get extended then. Thanks
FiremanMike
Just a dude
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I got bored, so I looked up the CDC statistics on influenza, note these stats are for America only, not globally
2018-2019 - 35.5m infected (est), 490,600 hospitalized, 34,200 dead
2017-2018 - 44.8m infected (est), 808,129 hospitalized, 61,099 dead
2016-2017 - 29.2m infected (est), 496,912 hospitalized, 38,230 dead
2015-2016 - 23.5m infected (est), 276,198 hospitalized, 22,705 dead
Do you know what we didn't have? Daily death tickers, global shutdown, $1 trillion stimulus packages, frenzied rushes for toilet paper and N95 masks..
2018-2019 - 35.5m infected (est), 490,600 hospitalized, 34,200 dead
2017-2018 - 44.8m infected (est), 808,129 hospitalized, 61,099 dead
2016-2017 - 29.2m infected (est), 496,912 hospitalized, 38,230 dead
2015-2016 - 23.5m infected (est), 276,198 hospitalized, 22,705 dead
Do you know what we didn't have? Daily death tickers, global shutdown, $1 trillion stimulus packages, frenzied rushes for toilet paper and N95 masks..
It makes sense to me that a new virus would provoke more anxiety than an old one. We have vaccines for the flu and lots of experience dealing with it.
As for the media's role, I find few things as ironic and useless as any media outlet, such as Newsweek in the above example, criticizing the media. Competition, alone, can lead to biased reporting.
As for the media's role, I find few things as ironic and useless as any media outlet, such as Newsweek in the above example, criticizing the media. Competition, alone, can lead to biased reporting.
DrParasite
The fire extinguisher is not just for show
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don't forget social quarantine, media fear mongering, and anything to make POTUS look bad....
oh, and just think, those numbers are what we had WITH the flu vaccine.....
RedBlanketRunner
Opheophagus Hannah Cuddler
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US just jumped mortality by 100.
Intensive care specialist Hugh Montgomery: The average flu is about 1.3 to 1.4 contagious. that is in a community each person who contracts it will pass it on to 1.3 to 1.4 people on average. So 10 generations of transmission causes about 20 infections. 1 > 1.4 > 1.96 > 2.74 > 3.84 > 5.37 > 7.52 > 10.54 > 14.75 > 20.66
Covid-19 is much more contagious. In the community each person will pass it on to 3 people. So 10 generations of transmission can cause about 59,000 infections. 1 > 3 > 9 > 27 > 81 > 243 > 729 > 2187 > 6561 > 19683 > 59094
Intensive care specialist Hugh Montgomery: The average flu is about 1.3 to 1.4 contagious. that is in a community each person who contracts it will pass it on to 1.3 to 1.4 people on average. So 10 generations of transmission causes about 20 infections. 1 > 1.4 > 1.96 > 2.74 > 3.84 > 5.37 > 7.52 > 10.54 > 14.75 > 20.66
Covid-19 is much more contagious. In the community each person will pass it on to 3 people. So 10 generations of transmission can cause about 59,000 infections. 1 > 3 > 9 > 27 > 81 > 243 > 729 > 2187 > 6561 > 19683 > 59094
E tank
Caution: Paralyzing Agent
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With everyone at home? Staying 6 feet away from each other? This country has stopped functioning. Your math means absolutely nothing. That doesn't even include weaker mutations of the virus as time goes on.
Same. EMS volume is down, ED volume is down, inpatient volume has tanked.
RedBlanketRunner
Opheophagus Hannah Cuddler
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Agreed. His math is just a general rule to go by. The reality is worse: 17.2% increase in infections (58,479) in the last 24 hrs. 337,114->395,593 Source: J. Hopkins M.C., WHO, +
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Sure, but the flu season is a bit more spread out don't you think?
Everything sucks right now frankly. I rarely dislike going to work, but I don't like being here now. Will all of the attempts to slow this matter? I doubt we'll ever know.
RedBlanketRunner
Opheophagus Hannah Cuddler
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Add those stats the Covid-19. While you are at it, could you include motor vehicle accidents?
BTW, mortality for the common (seasonal) flu is .1% Present Covid-19 mortality 4.1+%
Let's use your stats, 2018-2019: 34,200 / 35.5m infected * 100 = .096 deaths per 100 infections in the US. Average world wide is about the same.
Covid-19: 16567 / 382612 * 100 = 4.32 deaths per 100 infections (March 23 numbers)
The difference is, seasonal flu is multiple source in the wild. Covid-19 is single source. Consider Covid-19 with a few hundred thousand sources like the common flu, like we have right now. Consider how naive that comparison is.
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Mortality rate is not 4.1+, it's that because we only test those that are basically getting admitted. We are not testing those with mild symptoms. When you only use those that are admitted and use death rate to get mortality rate, you will get highly elevated rate. Instead look at SK numbers. It's around .05%, yes it's 5 times higher compare to regular flu and yes many do have some immunity to it . While COVID-19 does have dangerous symptoms to those that with compromise immune system be it elderly and/or younger population many do not. In fact some might never even have any symptoms at all. It's hard to say if we have overreacted but it's possible. For now it sure looks like it's overreaction or we are dogging the bullet but only time will tell.
RedBlanketRunner
Opheophagus Hannah Cuddler
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Same thing applies to the seasonal flu. Covid-19 is estimated between 25% and 45% higher mortality rate. WHO
SandpitMedic
Crowd pleaser
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Didn’t you say you have COVID, Red?
RedBlanketRunner
Opheophagus Hannah Cuddler
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Not % -> times higher
Yes. Seems to be following a pretty normal pattern. Infection Feb. 26m symptoms March 6th-7th - minor sore throat, no sinus issues, and bringing up a lot of mucus from the lungs. I had no fever, my wife 99.2-4 By March 10th we both were bringing up an incredible amount of mucus, coughing almost contiuously, and around the 15th it started tapering off. Still very minor cough and slight sore throat. Notable is it was like a heavy duty flu but complete lack of sinus involvement.
Our municipality went on total lock down today. Lots of police checkpoints.
One notable thing if this is anything to go by. I hit the hills on my bike to the tune of 100 miles a week. My wife exercise is zilch. Her respiratory distress was much greater than mine, unable to lie down flat for 2 nights. I'd venture a guess a PFT would coincide pretty closely with severity. Not that anyone has a few thousand spare RTs with the time to do that screening.
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Sled Driver
In a Wuhan Wet Market
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Hawaii is currently quarantining all incoming visitors for 14 days.
Summit
Critical Crazy
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Alaska too