Most of what is presented in the media is done without any context and is even intentionally slanted so as to be sensational. Most of the projections are based on the assumption that mitigating steps won't help all that much, and that in the absence of government mandates, individuals won't modify their own behavior at all.
The projections are also based on the idea that what happens in China and Italy is likely to happen here, despite the fact that most parts of China have much higher population densities than most parts of the US, as do the parts of Italy that have been hardest hit. A much higher part of China's population smoke cigarettes (30%), and in Italy it is almost 50% as well as having a much older population. Sanitation is also a problem in many parts of China.
Because their is no specific treatment for COVID-10, testing rates are moot as long as enough people are social distancing anyway, especially anyone who is sick.
We are probably just now entering the steep part of the upslope and are in for a scary few weeks. Lots of people are going to get sick, hospitals will be overwhelmed, and some of those who die would not have if we had better surge capacity. After a few weeks of that, things will likely start to get better as quickly as they got bad.
There are a handful of sources that credibly buck the popular narrative. One of my favorites, and a good stating point is
the blog at Enki Research.
Also google Jeffrey Epstein, and
read this article.