I think I asked the same questions a while ago, and you said the virus wasn't affecting your hospital. Is that still the case?
The rural hospitals I work in and the larger health system that we are part of has been minimally affected thus far. We are in a (relatively) sparsely populated region so we don't expect to be as overwhelmed as many areas, even though we have fewer resources (beds, ventilators) and sicker patient (on average) per capita. That said, we obviously don't know what is going to happen. We know there will be challenges and our doing our best to become as prepared as possible.
What should the country do, if not lock down?
Do we shrug and say "oh well, guess a bunch of people will just have to die" as the virus burns itself out?
How are hospitals supposed to handle the surge of patients?
We are in a dire situation where a bunch of people are going to die no matter what we do. I would never make that statement flippantly or "shrug" when I do. However, it is what it is. We can't stop it. Of course we hope to minimize mortality and suffering, but, in large part because of our utter lack of preparation for what was an entirely predictable event, we are very limited in our capacity to do so.
Just like many thousands of other healthcare providers, I am planning on at some point being in a position where I will willingly risk not only my own health, but that of my family in order to provide care to sick patients. Also, I have family members whose health status puts them squarely in the highest risk category and who are likely to require healthcare services at some point while the system is overwhelmed. So please don't act as though I don't take this seriously just because I think hysteria and economic suicide are the wrong approach.
If we had a healthy financial system, we could probably shut down the entire economy and make everyone stay home and send every American a paycheck for months and stimulate all the important industries and deal with the economic ramifications of this thing easily. However, not only would many people still contract COVID-19 and die if we did that, but we don't have a healthy financial system at all. Our nation is well over $20TRILLION in debt in addition to many TRILLIONS more in unfunded liabilities and projections to add at least another $1T per year for at least the next decade. Some of our largest states, adjusted for scale, are even worse off. Our domestic economy is also debt-based with multiple bubbles growing at once (mortgages, student loans, credit cards), and the value of our money is based on nothing more than the willingness of foreign corporations to keep loaning us more. It's like a family with a house and cars they can't afford and massive consumer debt and no savings trying to deal with a huge unexpected expense. That type of thing makes families go bankrupt. Only the US can't go bankrupt, we can only default on our debts which means no one else will loan us money, which means that we'll have no way to pay for all of our massive programs. Or, we can print an unlimited amount of money and use that to pay our debts, but then the money becomes worthless. We've been warned for years that we were approaching a point where any number of unplanned for global events could bring the whole thing crashing down. I don't know for sure that this is it, but we should not be confident that it isn't.
The dollar value of a life is not limitless, especially a life that is nearing its end anyway. That sounds really harsh but it's a reality that we all implicitly accept, even if we never think about it, and even if we refuse to acknowledge the fact that healthcare, like every other scarce thing, will always need to be rationed one way or another. What follows is a very legitimate question: is it worth sacrificing millions of jobs and tens of thousands of businesses and resulting years (potentially decades, if this causes a real collapse) of economic suffering and all the health effects that come along with that, in order to hopefully save probably fewer lives that we lose to the flu in a normal year? I don't necessarily have the correct answer to that, but I suspect that when this is over, many more people will be asking that question than are asking it now.
What we
should have done over the past decades was prepare our healthcare system for this. We knew this was coming. There are government agencies and offices in cities and healthcare systems and universities whose sole job is to anticipate and prepare for these types of eventualities. More than a decade since the H1N1 pandemic and only a few years since Influenza A killed 60,000 Americans and hospitals are STILL only keeping enough N95's on hand for the anticipated number of TB patients and we STILL have no strategic stockpile of PPE and vents, and they're telling us to wrap bandanas around our faces when we run out of N95's!?!? Great job, feds and planners and healthcare executives!
Another thing we
should have done was not allow our federal government to put our financial system in such a precarious and helpless position so that something like this potentially throws us into a deep and prolonged recession.
I can do one more: giving the CDC and FDA so much power that they had the ability to **** up the early development and deployment of testing kits was just brilliant. Great job again, feds! We should totally keep trusting what you say!
So, all that said….now that the feds and the healthcare industry that they closely oversee have ****ed this up every way possible, what should we do? I think the best way to balance limiting the spread with keeping our economy going is to stress the importance of those in high risk groups self-quarantining, and encouraging social distancing such as people working and schooling from home as much as possible. If certain densely populated locales (NYC) think it's worth the cost of shutting everything down because of their increased risk, then fine. But that should be the exception rather than the norm, IMO.