Coronavirus Discussion Thread

Test the social media “experts” continue to whine about “fake numbers” and social restrictions.
 
NomadicMedic said:
the social media “experts” continue to whine about “fake numbers” and social restrictions.
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I suppose the blame can be laid square on the piss poor basic education systems both in the US and some locations in Europe. There is a vast gap between day to day lives and the academic world. Mr or Ms Average has no idea how science works and how difficult it is to fudge the numbers. More yet, they are completely clueless as to what happens to a reputable institute if they publish fake numbers. Reputation irredeemably shot to hell and you can kiss your funding, present and future good bye.
 
It literally popped off this week. Last week was slow, ERs were empty and us and the staff were more often and not hang out in the parking lot.

This week its bonkers. Running our tuchus off, ER is packed, we are triaging people to stay home. Thankfully our SNFs never really eased up on their procedures, which are basically Fort Knoxian so it hasnt started ripping through them again. The good thing is so far our patient populations are much younger and less severe than in March/April.Commonly complaining of weakness, lethargy, brain fog, and exertional dyspnea. Thankfully patients are pretty receptive to staying home after a little education from someone who has already had this. Even though our cases are through the roof, hospital census is like 1/3 of what it was in the Spring. Makes you wonder how many people had it back then
 
This didn’t age well.

C227E6CD-1E59-41CF-8B21-4B8F11FB2AE9.jpeg
 
FDA approved the vaccine. Now the CDC needs to finish up some clerical work, and shots should start Monday for our local hospital workers.
 
NomadicMedic said:
This didn’t age well.
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Sure it did. Compared to the science project I scraped off the bottom shelf of the fridge. But that festering glop probably had a year head start.
 
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NomadicMedic said:
This didn’t age well.
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Well, I guess my terminology was a bit brash and rushed.

The virus waxing/waning will probably be dealt with for a long time as we do with the flu. We knew this would spread, but the mortality rate remains relatively low. Also, there are a lot of issues with testing being inconsistent, inaccurate, and plainly not indicated which account for a part of the numbers.

My COVID+ patients have not been as sick as one would imagine based on the television. My experience is in hospital, and in COVID field hospitals x2. While many do wind up in the ICU, the vast majority of patients do not. There is an even larger proportion of asymptotic carriers.

There are still a lot of unknowns about the virus as well, as mortality is not the only concern. The long term sequelae of the virus and potentially the vaccine remain to be seen. I aim not to minimize the virus, but the reaction to the virus. The shut downs were/are an over reaction and evidently do not work.

I’m always learning and adapting as new information is available. It’s not a nothing burger, but it also is not the end of the world. We’ll see what happens as this progresses and we devise better treatments, and the virus mutates.
 
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RedBlanketRunner said:
I suppose the blame can be laid square on the piss poor basic education systems both in the US and some locations in Europe. There is a vast gap between day to day lives and the academic world. Mr or Ms Average has no idea how science works and how difficult it is to fudge the numbers. More yet, they are completely clueless as to what happens to a reputable institute if they publish fake numbers. Reputation irredeemably shot to hell and you can kiss your funding, present and future good bye.
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“iF ewE guiZz hAd betTeR SKoolZ, u wuLd kNot be skePtiCull of aNyTHing end yOo wULd aLwaYzz jesT doo aS eWe r tolled. R lEEdurz wud nEVUR maniPooLate uS orE misLeeD uS.”

Pot, meet kettle. You completely owned yourself with this post, and you’ll probably never figure out what I mean by that.

If you think the only reason why so many folks are in such disagreement with the ham-handed responses that we’ve seen doled out by every level of government for the past 10 months is because we’re uneducated and simply too dumb to understand, then the joke is entirely on you, and try as you might, your lack of understanding of that precludes you from being able to make any sensible commentary on the matter.

I am firmly in the camp of thinking our federal and state governments made a bad problem even worse and that they absolutely DID mislead us when when it benefitted them, and I’m not quite the uneducated dolt that you’d like to think. Have you done graduate work in physiology and pharmacology and microbiology and clinical statistics and epidemiology? Just curious.
 
I still struggle with the whole “shut down didn’t work,” thing. I think we all knew it wouldn’t eliminate the virus. It did however give us some time to get capacity together and time to better figure out how to care for patients.

I am not sure how you prove that it was unnecessary, there really isn’t another comparable event here. You might feel it was overdone, and you might be right. But it seems difficult to state this empirically which is why I am just not going to take a position.
 
imprimis.hillsdale.edu

A Sensible and Compassionate Anti-COVID Strategy

We should respond to the COVID virus rationally: protect the vulnerable, treat the people who get infected compassionately, develop a vaccine. And while doing these things we should bring back the civilization that we had so that the cure does not end up being worse than the disease.
imprimis.hillsdale.edu imprimis.hillsdale.edu
 
Tigger said:
I still struggle with the whole “shut down didn’t work,” thing. I think we all knew it wouldn’t eliminate the virus. It did however give us some time to get capacity together and time to better figure out how to care for patients.

I am not sure how you prove that it was unnecessary, there really isn’t another comparable event here. You might feel it was overdone, and you might be right. But it seems difficult to state this empirically which is why I am just not going to take a position.
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I agree. I think one reason the shutdown didn't achieve better results -- medical, not economic -- is that it was compromised by mixed messaging from the feds. Who knows how much infection could have been prevented by staying the course, but I'm not discounting the financial consequences.
 
Tigger said:
I still struggle with the whole “shut down didn’t work,” thing. I think we all knew it wouldn’t eliminate the virus. It did however give us some time to get capacity together and time to better figure out how to care for patients.

I am not sure how you prove that it was unnecessary, there really isn’t another comparable event here. You might feel it was overdone, and you might be right. But it seems difficult to state this empirically which is why I am just not going to take a position.
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it is true that it is impossible to say with certainty how much the lockdowns did or did not help. What we do know as that in addition to whatever effect that those measures did or did not have on the spread of the virus, they had countless negative effects which I do not believe are given the consideration that they should. Millions of kids missed most of a year of school, an entire class of seniors were forced to forgo graduation, and many younger ones have endured social isolation and the school resources that they rely on for safety and security. A million small businesses have closed for good and countless people are unemployed or underemployed. The federal debt was increased by a staggering amount in just a few months. Alcohol abuse, drug abuse, domestic violence, and suicide have all likely increased. Trust in the government is at an all time low. None of this was caused by the virus, but by our response to it.

All that said, considering that nearly 50% of all COVID deaths have been among LTC residents and that most of the rest of the severe illnesses and deaths occurred within similarly well-defined populations, I think it is rather apparent that we could have very likely achieved at least similar and quite possibly much better results by focusing on protecting those populations much better than we did, and letting those who we knew were very unlikely to be affected keep going to work and school and church. There were some very smart folks making that case early on, and it always seemed obvious to me.
 
Carlos Danger said:
it is true that it is impossible to say with certainty how much the lockdowns did or did not help. What we do know as that in addition to whatever effect that those measures did or did not have on the spread of the virus, they had countless negative effects which I do not believe are given the consideration that they should...
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Nor is COVID-related disability, which isn't publicized nearly as often as death, but has compromised many young and old COVID survivors indefinitely.
 
I personally know several previously health ICU RNs and other HCWs younger than I (and I'm not that old) with long-term effects of COVID ranging from unpleasant to debilitating.
 
@Summit Re: C-19 research, your signature says it all. An almost impossibly compressed time frame and far more unassigned variables than established facts. I'm fervently hoping the care providers don't turn into guinea pigs in a rushed, guesswork lab experiment.
 
Carlos Danger said:
considering that nearly 50% of all COVID deaths have been among LTC residents and that most of the rest of the severe illnesses and deaths occurred within similarly well-defined populations, I think it is rather apparent that we could have very likely achieved at least similar and quite possibly much better results by focusing on protecting those populations much better than we did
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I'm of a similar mind at the moment. If we'd done MUCH more to protect the vulnerable (and we knew basically who was most at risk early-on), and kept protecting them throughout the entire time, we'd probably be in an overall better place now.

That and providing accurate info as we know it at the time...
 
E tank said:
long term effects? it hasn't even been a year...
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True, but I think even a few months of debilitating symptoms, without knowing if or when there's an endpoint, is enough to dispel the notion that COVID outcomes are binary, and that getting infected is no big deal for 98% of the population.
 
The whole idea of the lockdowns was to "flatten the curve"; it was a short term (two week) solution to not overwhelm the healthcare system, with a huge rush of infections. what people seem to forget was people were still going to get sick, and even die, but it wasn't going to be a huge spike. So these long term lockdowns aren't supported by any actual science, but they do have some pretty bad side effects (financial ruin, mental health issues, drug/alcohol abuse, child abuse, educational regression for those in school, etc).

I don't think COVID is like the bubonic plague, which killed 1/3 of Europe, which seem to be what many people think it is. No one has ever said the virus didn't exist (despite what some are implying). People WILL die, it happens every year. Nursing homes, prisons, and college campuses are going to be hotspots; in fact any time you have large groups of people in close contact you will have issues. However, outside, it's much rarer because UV light (from the sun or artificially created) dramatically shortens the virus's lifespan.

The simple truth is we can't lockout indefinitely. We need to find a way to live with this virus, that has a 99% survival rate. We need to take extra precautions among those with comorbidities and find solutions to deal with large groups in small spaces. I will be taking the vaccine once it's offered to me. I have former coworkers who caught the covid, who said it sucked, who have since recovered. Even if it's 95% effective, that's better than 0. And if I give into the fear that COVID is going to fatal, then I'll take the side effects over death and "long-term effects of COVID ranging from unpleasant to debilitating."
 
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