Coronavirus Discussion Thread

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... actually butt stuff can give you COVID as the virus is shed through fecal material
 
VentMonkey said:
True statement. However, the only other person I’ve heard make mention of this was Eric Bauer.
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Well that’s ‘cause he likes butt stuff 😂
 
Dwindling... like seriously. Almost as if the response was overblown. Or was it?
 
"If you stay at home and nothing happens...THAT's the POINT!"

Just sayin...

Toothpaste never became popular until they added a chemical that made it froth.
Febreeze is odorless yet effective. The company nearly bankrupted, until they added a fake scent.

Human psychology dictates we have to "see" things working.
 
SandpitMedic said:
Dwindling... like seriously. Almost as if the response was overblown. Or was it?
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I think the only way we’ll know for sure is what the numbers look like after this quarantine is lifted..

I was thinking this week though - this quarantine is a joke. We‘re still leaving the house, we’re still touching things, we’re still interacting with people.. I’d bet we’ve come direct and indirect contact with pretty much everyone by now at least once..
 
SandpitMedic said:
Dwindling... like seriously. Almost as if the response was overblown. Or was it?
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But millions upon millions would be dead in the US alone if if not for the destruction of countless businesses, the creation of record unemployment and budget deficits, and the wrecking of our economy!

I mean, can you just imagine the carnage if we hadn't sent stimulus checks to folks who didn't lose their jobs, given hundreds of millions in small business loans to profitable mega-corporations, given millions in pork to the museum industry, and arrested people for jogging on empty beaches in the early morning hours or for listening to easter church services over their car radio with the windows rolled up?!?!
 
FiremanMike said:
I think the only way we’ll know for sure is what the numbers look like after this quarantine is lifted..

I was thinking this week though - this quarantine is a joke. We‘re still leaving the house, we’re still touching things, we’re still interacting with people.. I’d bet we’ve come direct and indirect contact with pretty much everyone by now at least once..
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I think the data coming out of New york, USC, and now berkely is enough to confidently say the mortality rate is under 1%.
 
GMCmedic said:
I think the data coming out of New york, USC, and now berkely is enough to confidently say the mortality rate is under 1%.
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One key statistic that will trail all others is long-term disability. I'm guessing it will be many times higher than mortality.
 
If you look at the Sweden data objectively (very hard thing for people to do these days) you can see that shutdowns were not necessary.

The vulnerable needed to be sheltered and protected. Everyone else- not so much. It was life as normal.

I’ll bet when antibody testing like that done in CA becomes more mainstream the data will show was already out on the community which is more data to show lock downs were not necessary.

To those claiming “we will never know” how lockdowns helped saved civilization and countless lives or if it was worth it to suicide the economy... yes we will- the answer is no it wasn’t. It’s not political. It is demonstrably a fact.
 
mgr22 said:
One key statistic that will trail all others is long-term disability. I'm guessing it will be many times higher than mortality.
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I was unaware of long term disability - I thought people either died or recovered.

SandpitMedic said:
If you look at the Sweden data objectively (very hard thing for people to do these days) you can see that shutdowns were not necessary.

The vulnerable needed to be sheltered and protected. Everyone else- not so much. It was life as normal.

I’ll bet when antibody testing like that done in CA becomes more mainstream the data will show was already out on the community which is more data to show lock downs were not necessary.

To those claiming “we will never know” how lockdowns helped saved civilization and countless lives or if it was worth it to suicide the economy... yes we will- the answer is no it wasn’t. It’s not political. It is demonstrably a fact.
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People will argue that Sweden is different because of reasons.. So in my mind, the true apples to apples will be on May 1, when we start to lift this "quarantine". If we see an explosion of cases, it'll indicate it was as virulent as they said. If we see an explosion of deaths, it may indicate it was as deadly as they said.

I will concede these points - the data does indicate that this was more rapidly fatal than the flu, in that we are 8 weeks in from our first reported "this is a covid death" patient to today and we're seeing a mortality statistic which is similar to a typical 6 month flu season. It is also worth noting that on the data I've been charting since March 1 (from the WHO numbers), the mortality % compared to confirmed cases has actually steadily rose instead of steadily fallen, which is what I would have suspected as tests became more available.
 
FiremanMike said:
I was unaware of long term disability - I thought people either died or recovered.
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The immune systems of some patients overreact to the virus, leading to organ damage. Also, there's a syndrome known as CAC (COVID-19 associated coagulopathy) which can cause emboli leading to CVA, MI, etc. CAC may be an aberrant immune response, too. And I'm pretty sure being on O2 and a vent for a while can lead to permanent lung damage, but I defer to the respiratory experts out there on that one.
 
FiremanMike said:
I was unaware of long term disability - I thought people either died or recovered.



People will argue that Sweden is different because of reasons.. So in my mind, the true apples to apples will be on May 1, when we start to lift this "quarantine". If we see an explosion of cases, it'll indicate it was as virulent as they said. If we see an explosion of deaths, it may indicate it was as deadly as they said.

I will concede these points - the data does indicate that this was more rapidly fatal than the flu, in that we are 8 weeks in from our first reported "this is a covid death" patient to today and we're seeing a mortality statistic which is similar to a typical 6 month flu season. It is also worth noting that on the data I've been charting since March 1 (from the WHO numbers), the mortality % compared to confirmed cases has actually steadily rose instead of steadily fallen, which is what I would have suspected as tests became more available.
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Same with every other illness w/ prolonged hospitalization, people are seriously debilitated and experiencing all the complications that come with that. Many will have lasting damage to their lungs as seen in your run of the mill severe pneumonia as well. Those who survive the ICU will more or less be trached and many recovering from serious kidney damage and clots (DVTs/PEs, MIs, CVAs).

Saying you can translate the data from Sweden to the US seems like a stretch. Sweden can really only be compared to similar EU countries. The US population is less healthy, more self centered, and has different end of life values while being set in a very different type of health system.
 
Crush the curve Idaho has been doing mass antibody testing for anyone who wants it and they are finding about 1.8% of the people tested has the antibodies.
 
silver said:
Saying you can translate the data from Sweden to the US seems like a stretch. Sweden can really only be compared to similar EU countries. The US population is less healthy, more self centered, and has different end of life values while being set in a very different type of health system.
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I didn't say that, I said apples to apples will be on May 1.. I was referencing May 1 in America..
 
FiremanMike said:
I didn't say that, I said apples to apples will be on May 1.. I was referencing May 1 in America..
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Oh I know, I just didn't want to spend the time cutting your comment to quote only part of it about disability...

But I also don't think you can compare May 1 as apples in the US unless we had a similar population that didn't take the same interventions as us. We have drastically increased supply chains of PPE + testing capacity, increased availability of hospital beds, increased understanding of the disease process, and society will be more cautious and aware.
 
FiremanMike said:
I was unaware of long term disability - I thought people either died or recovered.



People will argue that Sweden is different because of reasons.. So in my mind, the true apples to apples will be on May 1, when we start to lift this "quarantine". If we see an explosion of cases, it'll indicate it was as virulent as they said. If we see an explosion of deaths, it may indicate it was as deadly as they said.

I will concede these points - the data does indicate that this was more rapidly fatal than the flu, in that we are 8 weeks in from our first reported "this is a covid death" patient to today and we're seeing a mortality statistic which is similar to a typical 6 month flu season. It is also worth noting that on the data I've been charting since March 1 (from the WHO numbers), the mortality % compared to confirmed cases has actually steadily rose instead of steadily fallen, which is what I would have suspected as tests became more available.
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Not that it makes much difference but were nearly 12 weeks in. The first known death was february 6th in California,confirmed by pathology results.
 
silver said:
Oh I know, I just didn't want to spend the time cutting your comment to quote only part of it about disability...

But I also don't think you can compare May 1 as apples in the US unless we had a similar population that didn't take the same interventions as us. We have drastically increased supply chains of PPE + testing capacity, increased availability of hospital beds, increased understanding of the disease process, and society will be more cautious and aware.
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Just so we’re on the same page, I mean post May 1 America compared to pre May 1 America..
 
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