There haven't been any vaccine related deaths ... Yet. And hopefully there never will be.
But there may be other side effects and consequences of this vaccine that we don't know about yet simply because it hasn't been around long enough and given to enough people to adequately determine if there are issues.
Vaccines, Worry, and Risk
I wrote the second half of this post first. Then I reflected on the fact that those with higher levels of professional education relating to vaccines, epidemiology, public health, immunology, genetic engineering, and/or risk management with an understanding of biostatistics tend to be those who have the least vaccine hesitancy. I thought I was in a good position to write the first part.
PART 1 The Problem With Risk
Physicians, Epidemiologists, Infection Preventionists, and Public Health pros exemplify support for vaccination. Why are the SMEs far more comfortable?
The answer is NOT that everyone with concerns is a fool.
While I still practice ICU and EMS, my primary professional expertise for the past several years is epidemiology, infection prevention, and risk management across multiple fields from healthcare to rescue to objective hazards to small/large group human factors. People naturally think they are really good at judging risk as it is almost an automatic action we do every day, even subconsciously. There is an inescapable reality at play: people, including smart people, tend to be terrible at judging risk, worse at comparing (qualifying) risk, and beyond abysmal at quantifying risk. Unfortunately, cognitive biases dominate human risk assessment at a far greater level of influence than our standard logical analysis which are subject to all kind of biases and fallacies.
While I could go on for hours about the details, there are some major factors that drive the disparity between people's perceived and real risk assessment ability.
- Low frequency or unknown risks are particularly hard to integrate into risk analysis.
- Knowlede gaps: A cursory knowledge of a concept instills overconfidence, often towards components where there is understanding while discounting areas that are not. Expert level understanding and experience greatly improves ability, but is not proof against error.
- Attention bias to risk factors independent of quantifiable data - we see this from media and social media.
- Probability neglect bias driving excessive adherence / misapplication of the precautionary principle: this is often seen as overweighting constrainable uncertainty to discount risk mitigation strategies for known risks.
PART 2 Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Those who have expertise in the field with a deeper understanding of the science, math and risk are the ones who are most likely to say this is a good idea. But ultimately it is the individual who must decide whether to listen to the din of authoritative non-experts preaching caution on risk mitigation vs experts saying the benefit outweighs the risk.
Vaccine Risk
- All available data on 70 years of vaccines shows that any non-rare long term effects were related to immediate short term effects well observed in the first 60 days post vaccination. We have this data.
- These mRNA vaccines are simpler in process with the fewest additives and no preservatives, and have the least amount of extraneous immunogenic material. They are objectively lower risk by their very nature vs other vaccines.
- Vaccine AE are short term and limited to mild/moderate effects for the vast majority of cases, and are actually manifestations of reactogenicity (the vaccine getting the immune system to train itself).
COVID Risk
- We know that COVID can cause severe illness including hospitalization, even in low risk groups, and at rates much higher than a severe vaccine complications in those low risk groups.
- We DO know that viral illnesses can cause long term effects in survivors.
- COVID appears to be causing some long term effects even those who are low mortality risk
- COVID is pandemic, so your chance of being infected along with the morbidity risk, including long term effects, and mortality risk consistent with your individual risk factors is very high.
No action is risk free! To the experts, the
concern about unrecognized 1 in 100K to 1 in 1MM effects of a vaccine, while sensible to attend in a vacuum, is a relatively misvalued concern in a pandemic even for those who are in low risk groups. The benefit of preventing risk of COVID vastly outweighs the risk of vaccine INCLUDING the constrained unknowns.