Coronavirus Discussion Thread

[Phillyrube]

If you don't think that news media intentionally sensationalizes and exploits situations like this for the purposes of their own importance and profit rather than for informing the public and that doing so causes unnecessary panic and real harm, than one of us is not only in denial but also ignorant of history, and it ain't me.

Residents of an island town where I own property are arguing that not only should it be illegal for non-residents to enter the town, but that anyone walking on the beach should be charged with attempted manslaughter, and some have suggested that doing so may even justify shooting those people in self defense.

Why do they think that? Because news sources have suggested repeatedly that coronavirus carries up to a 10% mortality rate AND have hosted quacks that imply the virus is not unlikely to be passed between people on a public beach many feet away from each other.

So what was that about evidence based medicine and denial?

If you think CNN and Fox News and countless columnists and bloggers have your welfare in mind, then I can't help you.

Seeing news articles from Jersey where shore townies are complaining about people from Philly and ny are going to their shore houses to shelter in place. Same with the Poconos where ny' ers are escaping to their second houses.

 

[SandpitMedic]

Alright ladies and gentlemen...
The science dudes over there who wrote the big scary Imperial Study (you know, the one which claimed we were all destined to die or be building coffins soon if we didn’t enact a complete shut down) have recanted their study. They admit they were wayyyyyy off base. To the tune of reducing their death tolls by 94%

What a crock of ****. So much panic. So much distress over that study.

****, even Red had the virus and got over it and is saying the numbers actually aren’t that bad.

According to the new data this thing actually is closer to the flu numbers and not the extinction level event the media would have you believe.

There is a necessity for preparedness at all levels of healthcare. I’m not saying prudence should not be the order of the day, yet the massive overblown reaction by the world may turn out to be just that. Yes, it’s a novel virus. We should be safe. But the panic, the hoarding, lockdowns, and destroying the economy were not right.

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...

www.dailywire.com

 

[FiremanMike]

Alright ladies and gentlemen...
The science dudes over there who wrote the big scary Imperial Study (you know, the one which claimed we were all destined to die or be building coffins soon if we didn’t enact a complete shut down) have recanted their study. They admit they were wayyyyyy off base. To the tune of reducing their death tolls by 94%

What a crock of ****. So much panic. So much distress over that study.

****, even Red had the virus and got over it and is saying the numbers actually aren’t that bad.

According to the new data this thing actually is closer to the flu numbers and not the extinction level event the media would have you believe.

There is a necessity for preparedness at all levels of healthcare. I’m not saying prudence should not be the order of the day, yet the massive overblown reaction by the world may turn out to be just that. Yes, it’s a novel virus. We should be safe. But the panic, the hoarding, lockdowns, and destroying the economy were not right.

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...

www.dailywire.com

I wonder when the mainstream media will start picking up these stories?

 

[Carlos Danger]

Alright ladies and gentlemen...
The science dudes over there who wrote the big scary Imperial Study (you know, the one which claimed we were all destined to die or be building coffins soon if we didn’t enact a complete shut down) have recanted their study. They admit they were wayyyyyy off base. To the tune of reducing their death tolls by 94%

What a crock of ****. So much panic. So much distress over that study.

****, even Red had the virus and got over it and is saying the numbers actually aren’t that bad.

According to the new data this thing actually is closer to the flu numbers and not the extinction level event the media would have you believe.

There is a necessity for preparedness at all levels of healthcare. I’m not saying prudence should not be the order of the day, yet the massive overblown reaction by the world may turn out to be just that. Yes, it’s a novel virus. We should be safe. But the panic, the hoarding, lockdowns, and destroying the economy were not right.

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...

www.dailywire.com

Related:

Half of UK Already Infected, Says Oxford Model

This is exactly the kind of thing that the "tiny minority" of voices that I keep referring to has been saying all along.

Let's see if this or the story that Sandpit posted are front and center on any of the major news websites any time soon. I think we know the answer to that, and I think we know why.

 

[mgr22]

Before y'all commit intellectually to what you're reading on www.dailywire.com, I suggest you click on their "2020 Election Page." If you lean politically in the same direction as Dailywire, you have nothing to fear.

I'm not saying I know who's right and who's wrong, but I think the quoted article is a good example of politics competing with medicine for the attention of the public.

 

[DrParasite]

Before y'all commit intellectually to what you're reading on www.dailywire.com, I suggest you click on their "2020 Election Page." If you lean politically in the same direction as Dailywire, you have nothing to fear.

I'm not saying I know who's right and who's wrong, but I think the quoted article is a good example of politics competing with medicine for the attention of the public.

I was waiting for someone to make that claim...... I mean, the same argument could be made for anyone who watches, reads, or listens to anything CNN says....

But if you want some other sources:

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

Neil Ferguson, whose modelling has informed the UK's coronavirus strategy, says that the need for intensive care beds will come close to, but not exceed, national capacity

www.newscientist.com

Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts figure to 20K or fewer - Washington Examiner

A scientist who warned that the coronavirus would kill 500,000 people in the United Kingdom has presented evidence that if current measures work as expected, the death toll would drop to roughly 20,000 people or fewer.Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Neil Ferguson, Doctor Behind Coronavirus Imperial College Study, Revises Predictions

The doctor behind a U.K. college study that painted a doomsday scenario over the coronavirus pandemic now says he holds a more optimistic view about the spread.

dailycaller.com

British prof who predicted 500k dead from coronavirus now estimating a radically lower number | The College Fix

He cites the UK lockdown that began two days ago.

www.thecollegefix.com

haven't heard anything from CNN, MSNBC, the NY Times (other than a tweet), etc: maybe they don't want to kill their massive click bait headlines, so they are waiting on reporting on the actual facts, and want to continue to spread baseless fear and incorrect information?

 

[FiremanMike]

Before y'all commit intellectually to what you're reading on www.dailywire.com, I suggest you click on their "2020 Election Page." If you lean politically in the same direction as Dailywire, you have nothing to fear.

I'm not saying I know who's right and who's wrong, but I think the quoted article is a good example of politics competing with medicine for the attention of the public.

I don’t look a single source and hedge my whole opinion on that. I will say my personal analysis of the statistics we have are more in line with the above posted article than the MSM reports..

I won’t speak for the others, but I bet they hold the same views..

 

[Carlos Danger]

True, there are some dissenting voices. But they aren’t really being pushed aside by the media, they are just an extremely tiny minority. There was an op ed in the NYT by David Katz on the 20th for example, where he argued for more selective measures to protect the elderly and other vulnerable groups while letting the rest of society get on with it. This hasn’t caught on, because again, the almost universal consensus amongst everybody else is that it won’t work. Which absolutely sucks by the way. But I would dispute your assertion that there are “plenty of credible” authorities who disagree.

Yes, you are correct that those who question whether our current reaction is necessary or worth it are a minority. Are they "extremely tiny" in number? No. It just appears that way because the vast majority of these folks aren't published in the NYT or featured on CNN. This is a common tactic which is used on all sorts of issue. Mainstream media ignores those with a dissenting point of view, so for all practical purposes, they don't exist.

Any why is that? It's because - profit motive and political agendas aside - despite this entire issue being primarily an economic one (epidemiology is essentially as much a branch of economics as it is medicine, and public health in general is driven more by economic forces than any other), no one is thinking at all about the immediate or downstream costs of our current policies, with the exception of the "tiny minority" who are dismissed out of hand by those incapable of thinking past their current fear.

I’m happy to talk this out in more detail, and get into the weeds if you want. But I’m also confident that in 5 days time, there will be no argument and no other side to this debate. We are about to see really horrible things happen in New York City and no one will want replicated where they live.

Really horrible things are already happening in NYC, and they are going to worsen before they improve. Much of it can not possibly be replicated in many parts of the country because of demographic and geographic factors. Not coincidentally, the NYC area has by far the highest population density in the country, as well as perhaps the largest population of recent world travelers. None of that explains or justifies why the same policies that are being implemented in NYC and other densely populated hotspots are being forced in rural, low-density parts of the country that haven't seen a single case. Businesses are closing and many will never re-open. People are losing their jobs and will soon be unable to pay their mortgages and some will deplete whatever life savings they've accumulated. This will likely result in a deep and prolonged recession, if not worse. What do you think the ripple effects of that might be? On the economy? On our government's ability to help those in need? On rates of domestic violence, crime, alcoholism, and suicide? On people's health?

 

[mgr22]

I don’t look a single source and hedge my whole opinion on that. I will say my personal analysis of the statistics we have are more in line with the above posted article than the MSM reports..

And you may be right. I hope you are. Meanwhile, there's this:

How the Pandemic Will End

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Peak]

FYI NYC has a chronic bed shortage. It's not uncommon for patients to wait 1-3 days in the ED before an ICU bed opens up. ED nurses average a 1:8 ratio. That's all the time pre-covid.

NYC is a uniquely bad example of how a local disease breakout quickly overwhelms a lacking healthcare system.

 

[GMCmedic]

FYI NYC has a chronic bed shortage. It's not uncommon for patients to wait 1-3 days in the ED before an ICU bed opens up. ED nurses average a 1:8 ratio. That's all the time pre-covid.

NYC is a uniquely bad example of how a local disease breakout quickly overwhelms a lacking healthcare system.

You can save people from trans fats and fountain drinks but whentheyre living on top of each other its bound to happen.

 

[mgr22]

FYI NYC has a chronic bed shortage. It's not uncommon for patients to wait 1-3 days in the ED before an ICU bed opens up. ED nurses average a 1:8 ratio. That's all the time pre-covid.

NYC is a uniquely bad example of how a local disease breakout quickly overwhelms a lacking healthcare system.

Not sure I understand. Are you saying New York's characteristics pre-covid make them less likely to have a bad outcome during the current crisis? Or that they're atypical and shouldn't be used to predict what will happen in the rest of the U.S.? Or something else?

 

[PotatoMedic]

Not sure I understand. Are you saying New York's characteristics pre-covid make them less likely to have a bad outcome during the current crisis? Or that they're atypical and shouldn't be used to predict what will happen in the rest of the U.S.? Or something else?

He's saying that before all this started NYC had an issue with overcrowding and not enough beds.

 

[firecoins]

NYC is usually overcrowded. Its a lot worse now of course. I've been In Elmhurst Medical center within the last couple of days and the situation there isn't good.

 

[RedBlanketRunner]

Nothing to see here. Get back to work! Your lung damage is probably not permanent.
Confirmed cases:
US 82,404
China 81,702
Italy 80,589
Spain 56,347

US:
Total deaths from the 4 common flu's since season start, approx 41,000 (averaged). Deaths per day, 230.
Total deaths from Covid-19 since January 20th, 1201. Deaths per day, 18.

Difference between Covid-19 and common flu, common flu in the wild, multiple pools of infection. Covid, single point initially.
Insufficient data on Covid-19 to run comparative to common flu but mortality rate of common flu is staying steady just under .1% Covid >1.4%, averaged by region, present rate. Covid mortality rate 14 times higher than all common seasonal flus combined.

 

[Seirende]

If there's one thing this pandemic has taught me, it's that a lot of people have a very sketchy knowledge of infection control. I'm seeing a lot of unnecessary gloves and masks.

 

[jgmedic]

Outside of the new scientist those are all right wing news sites. So kinda the pot calling the kettle black with the criticism of CNN,MSNBC and the like. Bias swings both ways.

 

[mgr22]

Outside of the new scientist those are all right wing news sites. So kinda the pot calling the kettle black with the criticism of CNN,MSNBC and the like. Bias swings both ways.

Yup. It's not hard to find Internet sources to support either side of the argument. What IS hard is knowing what's true. I'm just sitting here in TN, drawing my own conclusions about a disease that's infecting people at an increasing rate based on state and county sources. As they warn us about things getting worse, I doubt they're spreading baseless fear. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[RedBlanketRunner]

Where the projections come from that 80% of the people in the world will contract Covid-19. The primary problem with this model is how late and slow the testing has been. Of note, the model won't ever be entirely accurate until some times after the 1% susceptible is reached. Presently reported actual infections is extremely low, well below 50% possible, as most of the testing is performed on people with obvious symptoms.

(As he said, this is a standard model. IE all computations will follow this same formula)

 

[Akulahawk]

Among other things, I just hope that this doesn't hit my region anywhere near as hard as we're gearing up for... Of course we're gearing up for basically a worst-case scenario and hoping that reality isn't as bad as that. My region isn't anywhere near as densely populated as NYC is, so we shouldn't have the hospital overload that area does. That being said:

I also just saw a news article that my local hospitals are all now bracing for a coming surge in COVID19 patients. Basically they're all looking at repurposing hospital areas for inpatient care and some places are looking at possibly using outpatient ambulatory surgery sites, using on-campus buildings, and other non-traditional spaces to help absorb the surge. Nurses and physicians that aren't typical ED/ICU/Med-Tele/Med-Surg types are being briefed so that they can also take care of inpatients.

I'm an ED RN and if this does get bad, I have little doubt that I'll end up providing a lot of the care of our vented patients. Basically I'll probably split my time between doing my "usual" ED duties and providing care for lower-acuity ICU patients.

If, by chance, I end up going mostly quiet on here, it'll be from having to Work, Eat, Sleep, Wash-Rinse-Repeat and will be too tired to do much else. However, never fear, for I plan on being on here as much as I can, though I'm sure some of that will be after I get sufficient sleep.

Anecdotally, my perception of ED and hospital census has been down from normal over the past few days and while my managers are backing that up, I just get the feeling that we're in the proverbial "calm before the storm." I do hope that storm doesn't arrive... for I'll end up being seriously tired and overcaffeinated if it does.