Incredibly, the back-patting has already begun.
Coronavirus Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Akulahawk
- Start date
Incredibly, the back-patting has already begun.
OP
OP
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It really shouldn't boggle the mind all that much. Our strategic stockpile isn't set up for pandemics, just regional events like something affecting the entire LA Basin or Chicago area, or the NYC metro area. Anything bigger would quickly overwhelm all resources. As much as the SARS, H1N1, Influenza A, and Ebola epidemics of the past 20 years functioned as the proverbial "Canary in the coal mine" for this stuff, the "powers that be" didn't learn the lessons taught by those events. When everywhere in the world is but a few hours away, every one of those epidemics could have easily become a pandemic of massive proportions. Seriously, worldwide, none of the policymakers thought that there'd be another pandemic that could equal the size of the 1918 "Spanish Flu" pandemic. They probably figured that the infectious disease folks would detect the bug early, quarantine it quickly, and it would burn out quickly.
That's putting it mildly.
RedBlanketRunner
Opheophagus Hannah Cuddler
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@Akulahawk Valid and insightful, but what you say assumes across the board reasonably rational thinking. The stupendous herd of day glow pink elephants in the room negates it all: national protection and the war machine. Just recently have a look at it. From WWII on; the absolute need to replace 5 battleships which were never deployed, mothballed and eventually scrapped, the tens of thousands of tons of equipment and ordinance shipped back to the US and destroyed from the Korean conflict on, the huge ongoing government surplus sales dumping taxpayer purchases on the market at a few pennies for dollars spent, implausible weaponry made simply because a politician has certain factories in their constituencies, I think it is reasonably safe to say at least a trillion taxpayer dollars pissed straight down the drain.
A fraction of those ultra improbable just in case deterrents could and should be spent foreseeing things like potential pandemics instead of say, stockpiled over overkill nuclear weaponry... but probably won't because.... there's little or no profit in it.
But maybe this is a good thing. Imagine the cost of a basic N95 mask purchased through government procurement. $50 each?
(I'm recalling when the ultimate end all - be all infantry rfile, the M16 came out. After causing the death of a couple hundred GI's a new ammo was produced for it, at $15 per cartridge, along with a cleaning kit at a similarly ridiculous price.)
A fraction of those ultra improbable just in case deterrents could and should be spent foreseeing things like potential pandemics instead of say, stockpiled over overkill nuclear weaponry... but probably won't because.... there's little or no profit in it.
But maybe this is a good thing. Imagine the cost of a basic N95 mask purchased through government procurement. $50 each?
(I'm recalling when the ultimate end all - be all infantry rfile, the M16 came out. After causing the death of a couple hundred GI's a new ammo was produced for it, at $15 per cartridge, along with a cleaning kit at a similarly ridiculous price.)
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The prepping community has been trying to raise awareness about this for decades and has been rewarded by being portrayed as paranoid circus freaks. The truth is, it wouldn't take long for large numbers of people to become very desperate, and desperate people are very dangerous. I never understood why the thought of having a few month's of essential supplies on hand and plans for how you'd use them was anything but an obviously good idea.
FiremanMike
Just a dude
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I will say it taught me that n95 masks do have a shelf life. The stockpile we have leftover from h1n1 is plagued with dry rotted straps.. We’re working to fix that..
So my lesson learned is to replace our stock every 8-10 years..
RedBlanketRunner
Opheophagus Hannah Cuddler
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Just coming out. Covid-19 causes at least 10 times the number of deaths compared to the common flu. It is also at least as contagious.
FiremanMike
Just a dude
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Seeing as we have absolutely no idea how many people have been infected, there is literally zero credibility to that statement.
How do you have internet access anyways, aren’t you in some remote village in a third world country working as the sole healthcare provider for hundreds?
RedBlanketRunner
Opheophagus Hannah Cuddler
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A. Wouldn't you venture a guess a few experts have been exhaustively using quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques combined with projective analysis? I'd guess that algorithms for comparative analysis to establish upper and lower boundaries have been used considering the mortality rate figure, 1%, is off by 3 percentage points from present reported numbers. (Lower boundary)
B. It seems that your various comments you have posted and your knowledge of facts may differ significantly, as clearly demonstrated by that query..
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0.32% CFR worldwide in the 20-50 year old cohort, 1.3% among those in their 50’s, and 3.6 % for those in their 60’s. All among KNOWN CASES.
Doesn’t take into account the fact that perhaps a massive majority of cases are unidentified, or account for selection bias. Both of which would likely cut those percentages dramatically.
What that means is that even though this thing is clearly a big deal, any given individual is at very low risk. Which I think most of us understand, but you’d never know if you got all your information from the mainstream media.
Summit
Critical Crazy
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WE in the USA have only an extrapolated guess of the number of infected.
In other countries, the datasets are more complete.
FiremanMike
Just a dude
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Are you saying that the number of people infected = the number of positive test results reported across the planet are accurate in everywhere but America (and probably China).
If that's the case, then the virus isn't anywhere near as contagious as they let on..
I'm not sure "percent of population infected" is as meaningful an indicator of risk as trends. I live in a less-populous area where new cases are increasing arithmetically, if not geometrically. That makes me feel my family's risk of infection is uncomfortably high without any input from "mainstream media."
At this point, I think it's a hard sell to spin COVID-19 as not too bad. We aren't just talking about death; disability lasting at least weeks should be a big concern, too. And not just for grandparents.
At this point, I think it's a hard sell to spin COVID-19 as not too bad. We aren't just talking about death; disability lasting at least weeks should be a big concern, too. And not just for grandparents.
Summit
Critical Crazy
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Are you saying that you like to put words in people's mouths?
Seirende
Washed Up Paramedic/ EMT Dropout
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Sassy
DragonClaw
Emergency Medical Texan
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Went to a local hospital to pick up a pt. Hospital isn't that big.
49 yof cc sob, resolved.
We get into the hospital and my partner is primary. She's getting the report from the nurse and such. I go to go get the gurney ready and make pt contact.
Staff has to buzz me into the area, (a lot of places now have heightened security, protocols, limited access, block certain entry and egress points), so, no biggie. We can't go our normal route to the rooms.
I get into the area she's in, the staff member opens the door for me. No PPE on yet. Then I see someone with a gown, face mask with shield, gloves , the works.
"What are you doing back here without PPE?"
"Huh...?"
They let me into the Coronadome and I didn't even know it.
The reason we couldn't go pur normal route was because they put up like weird foam wall things and taped every gap. Etc.
So I leave and go get PPE.
Our pt was there because she got a letter from the hospital saying she might have been exposed.
But she's a sedentary 275 lbs with CHF.
Then her CHF acted up and she thought she got the Rona. So they put her with all the other respiratory pts that definitely or might have it.
The confirmed cases were further down the wing. But. ...
WHY ISN'T THERE A PRECAUTION NOTICE ON THE DOOR. WHY DID THEY LET ME IN SO NONCHALANTLY. Geez.
49 yof cc sob, resolved.
We get into the hospital and my partner is primary. She's getting the report from the nurse and such. I go to go get the gurney ready and make pt contact.
Staff has to buzz me into the area, (a lot of places now have heightened security, protocols, limited access, block certain entry and egress points), so, no biggie. We can't go our normal route to the rooms.
I get into the area she's in, the staff member opens the door for me. No PPE on yet. Then I see someone with a gown, face mask with shield, gloves , the works.
"What are you doing back here without PPE?"
"Huh...?"
They let me into the Coronadome and I didn't even know it.
The reason we couldn't go pur normal route was because they put up like weird foam wall things and taped every gap. Etc.
So I leave and go get PPE.
Our pt was there because she got a letter from the hospital saying she might have been exposed.
But she's a sedentary 275 lbs with CHF.
Then her CHF acted up and she thought she got the Rona. So they put her with all the other respiratory pts that definitely or might have it.
The confirmed cases were further down the wing. But. ...
WHY ISN'T THERE A PRECAUTION NOTICE ON THE DOOR. WHY DID THEY LET ME IN SO NONCHALANTLY. Geez.
FiremanMike
Just a dude
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Wow dude, I was trying to engage your point. Do you think the reported positive cases accurately reflects the total number of infected patients.
Chill.
DrParasite
The fire extinguisher is not just for show
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You know what the problem with your post is? it's all wrong. It's not accurate. and It's spreading misinformation.
"More than 800,000 physicians across the country signed a letter urging President Donald Trump to keep social distancing practices in place after he said he wants to reopen businesses by Easter. " Not the STFU. not to wait for consensus. and not to listen to fox.
Don't believe me? why not check out a left leaning source: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/doctors-trump-social-distancing_n_5e7e0bb3c5b6256a7a29273f
Your post shows your clear case of TDS is in full bloom, and the facts don't matter to you: it's all orange man bad, and even if he personally cured cancer tomorrow, you would still hate him.
Here, lets so you some more examples:
Well, it depends on how you define "need" a test. If you follow the CDC recommendations:
- The CDC says health care providers are the ones who decide whether someone gets tested for coronavirus.
- Factors clinicians should consider include whether individuals were in close contact with a lab-confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patient within 14 days of symptom onset, or traveled from affected geographic areas within 14 days of symptom onset.
- Symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, cough, and difficulty breathing.
Sorry, this has been verified to be a distortion of the truth by many fack checkers. Here is Snope's response: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-remark/
and yet, at 8 years of democratic leadership we still aren't prepared. but it's all Trumps fault.
you make a lot of wild claim, many with no factual backing. or half truths. or snippets from WaPo or CNN, two notorious anti-trump news agencies. Maybe you should lay off the MSNBC, or even check out fox news, so you can see what the other half of the political spectrum is saying? It might even help you get over your TDS, and mature into an intelligent individual.
DrParasite
The fire extinguisher is not just for show
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Now now.... don't go injecting facts into a discussion with a person who can only see "Orange man bad." if you keep that up he might even call you racist!
Summit
Critical Crazy
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Depends on the dataset. And total number infected is different than total number with the disease. SK probably offers the best representation of what you are asking for as they tested contacts and they have a 1.6% CFR and I think that will rise a bit, maybe to 2%. If you wanted to then assume that they missed half of the SARS-COV-2 infections that didn't develop COVID-19, you still get 1% and that is 10x the CFR of seasonal influenza.
DrParasite
The fire extinguisher is not just for show
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one thing we, the healthcare providers, need to remember is that all this preparation starts at the local and agency level. So if you don't have enough masks, questions should be asked to your local leadership as to why they didn't plan for this situation in their disaster response plan: what happens if we can't get mask from our regular supplier? how much of a supply do we have? What if our staff get sick, how do we survive? If we run out of resources, we should reach out to the county or state.... what do they have? what preparations do they have? What resources can we draw on? do they have plans for a major pandemic, once that all the experts say was a realistic possibility?
If you want to blame trump, and FEMA, for the lack of equipment, that's fine; but remember, FEMA doesn't have major stockpiles, they have commercial contracts for when the local resources are exhausted. That's why the responsibility and response starts at the local level and works up, and why FEMA isn't the lead agency on anything (despite what the media is claiming). they are a logistical resource only providing response support; the CDC and medical professionals are still running the show, and providing reports to our elected leaders.
And yes, the scenario would be better if Trump stopped tweeting, and if the states and locals were better prepared for this pandemic.
If you want to blame trump, and FEMA, for the lack of equipment, that's fine; but remember, FEMA doesn't have major stockpiles, they have commercial contracts for when the local resources are exhausted. That's why the responsibility and response starts at the local level and works up, and why FEMA isn't the lead agency on anything (despite what the media is claiming). they are a logistical resource only providing response support; the CDC and medical professionals are still running the show, and providing reports to our elected leaders.
And yes, the scenario would be better if Trump stopped tweeting, and if the states and locals were better prepared for this pandemic.