Coronavirus Discussion Thread

In less catastrophic news, my paramedic program has been put on hold. I am in the third cohort of New York's EMT-CC to Paramedic Bridge program and was slated to take the cardiology FISDAP exam next week. Due to unavailability of some or all of the testing sites, the program is to be delayed until they can come up with a solution. The cohort ahead of me was slated for the trauma exam in 2 weeks, followed shortly by the course final and skills update sessions.
 
OceanBossMan263 said:
In less catastrophic news, my paramedic program has been put on hold. I am in the third cohort of New York's EMT-CC to Paramedic Bridge program and was slated to take the cardiology FISDAP exam next week. Due to unavailability of some or all of the testing sites, the program is to be delayed until they can come up with a solution. The cohort ahead of me was slated for the trauma exam in 2 weeks, followed shortly by the course final and skills update sessions.
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I hope they let you folks continue to practice as CCs until things get back to normal.
 
We are practicing at that level now, but the state is no longer running refresher classes at that level. Continuing Education is still a route for those who will expire and don't want to upgrade or downgrade yet, and if the agency is enrolled in the CME program. I'm good for another 2+ years since I refreshed right before enrolling in the bridge.
 
OceanBossMan263 said:
We are practicing at that level now, but the state is no longer running refresher classes at that level. Continuing Education is still a route for those who will expire and don't want to upgrade or downgrade yet, and if the agency is enrolled in the CME program. I'm good for another 2+ years since I refreshed right before enrolling in the bridge.
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Sounds good. I spent some time in and around NYC as a medic.

Good luck.
 
Out of curiosity I googled some population density numbers.

Per sq mile.

US as a whole ~90
China ~ 300
Italy ~ 500
NYC ~27,000
 
I'm flat out amazed. Somebody equated population density with disease communicability.

Covid-19 infection rate slowly ramping up. Up to 12% increase per day from 10% a week ago. Mortality is proportional. Hopefully social distancing will kick in soon and force that curve down. If it doesn't that will be a solid indicator of it's communicability.

Encephalitis from eating human brains<------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------>Common cold
Covid-19 might be somewhere in between. Discounting certain space ships and aliens theories.

Bill Gates, very likely a little smarter than the average politician, predicts the rise in Covid infections will peak in late April. Well okay, a little smarter than any 100 politicians roaming the sewers of congress combined... I mean, which is more successful and capable, US infrastructure or health care, or MS Windows?
 
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Social distance cycle in NY and Long Island seems to be going this way:
1. Governor or other politician implores distance, noting that people are congregating in X place
2. People keep hanging out there
3. Governor closes area or restricts activity
4. People pissed because they don't listen

Also, what parent or teacher or school board member thought it was a good idea to start little teacher parades through the neighborhoods where they teach? Sure the teachers are in cars away from people, but now you're encouraging a whole school and their families to congregate on a few blocks
 
Remi said:
Yes, you are correct that those who question whether our current reaction is necessary or worth it are a minority. Are they "extremely tiny" in number? No. It just appears that way because the vast majority of these folks aren't published in the NYT or featured on CNN. This is a common tactic which is used on all sorts of issue. Mainstream media ignores those with a dissenting point of view, so for all practical purposes, they don't exist.

Any why is that? It's because - profit motive and political agendas aside - despite this entire issue being primarily an economic one (epidemiology is essentially as much a branch of economics as it is medicine, and public health in general is driven more by economic forces than any other), no one is thinking at all about the immediate or downstream costs of our current policies, with the exception of the "tiny minority" who are dismissed out of hand by those incapable of thinking past their current fear.

Really horrible things are already happening in NYC, and they are going to worsen before they improve. Much of it can not possibly be replicated in many parts of the country because of demographic and geographic factors. Not coincidentally, the NYC area has by far the highest population density in the country, as well as perhaps the largest population of recent world travelers. None of that explains or justifies why the same policies that are being implemented in NYC and other densely populated hotspots are being forced in rural, low-density parts of the country that haven't seen a single case. Businesses are closing and many will never re-open. People are losing their jobs and will soon be unable to pay their mortgages and some will deplete whatever life savings they've accumulated. This will likely result in a deep and prolonged recession, if not worse. What do you think the ripple effects of that might be? On the economy? On our government's ability to help those in need? On rates of domestic violence, crime, alcoholism, and suicide? On people's health?
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Again, media aside, the consensus is what it is, and dissenting views are quite limited in number. How do I know this? Because you can look investigators and labs well known in infectious disease transmission and modeling from coast to coast, and they are virtually all in agreement. They all agree that without drastic action, the hospitalization and death tolls will be enormous. And they agree that these measures are needed as much in NYC as they are in Ohio, Florida, California, Arizona, and Louisiana. Perhaps they can be more relaxed in very rural areas with low numbers of cases and robust testing and public health infrastructure, but maybe not. By the way my offer stands, I am happy to talk about specific people, specific labs, and specific models. Really.

I don't think anyone is ignoring the economic costs here. They will be profound. Probably unfathomable. And I think you're right, there will be lasting effects on mental health. But unfortunately I think you are wrong about what the likelihood of that is happening in NYC being replicated in other parts of the country. It can happen, its beginning to happen in Detroit right now. And Louisiana right now. And in Los Angeles right now. We have only one tool to apply the brakes, and its a blunt tool.
 
DrParasite said:
I was waiting for someone to make that claim...... I mean, the same argument could be made for anyone who watches, reads, or listens to anything CNN says....

But if you want some other sources:

www.newscientist.com

UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

There are a limited number of ICU beds in the UK The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government. Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK's parliamentary select committee on...
www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
www.washingtonexaminer.com

Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts figure to 20K or fewer - Washington Examiner

A scientist who warned that the coronavirus would kill 500,000 people in the United Kingdom has presented evidence that if current measures work as expected, the death toll would drop to roughly 20,000 people or fewer.Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the...
www.washingtonexaminer.com www.washingtonexaminer.com
dailycaller.com

Neil Ferguson, Doctor Behind Coronavirus Imperial College Study, Revises Predictions

The doctor behind a U.K. college study that painted a doomsday scenario over the coronavirus pandemic now says he holds a more optimistic view about the spread.
dailycaller.com dailycaller.com
www.thecollegefix.com

British prof who predicted 500k dead from coronavirus now estimating a radically lower number | The College Fix

He cites the UK lockdown that began two days ago.
www.thecollegefix.com www.thecollegefix.com

haven't heard anything from CNN, MSNBC, the NY Times (other than a tweet), etc: maybe they don't want to kill their massive click bait headlines, so they are waiting on reporting on the actual facts, and want to continue to spread baseless fear and incorrect information?
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The reason no reputable sources are echoing these claims is because this is a gross misrepresentation of what Ferguson actually said. He said deaths could be significantly scaled back with months of intense social distancing. And he quoted numbers from the table of the same publication people are claiming that he refuted. Otherwise the estimates from his original paper of up to 500,000 deaths still stand. So no, he did not refute or retract anything.

See page 11
 
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Are you guys optimistic that we'll be better prepared if something with even worse morbidity and mortality rates were to start to spread in the future?
 
Seirende said:
Are you guys optimistic that we'll be better prepared if something with even worse morbidity and mortality rates were to start to spread in the future?
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No. If ebola and SARS and H1N1 and Influenza A in 2017-2018 (almost 70 thousand died) combined didn't convince the powers-that-be that modest investments into stockpiles of PPE and ventilators and planning should be done, then I doubt this will.

As big a deal as this is to all of us right now, it will be over at some point and once it is, the experience will quickly fade in influence as health systems, governments, and individuals shift their focus towards the struggle to recover economically and trying to get back to some normalcy.

There will be meetings and conferences and round tables and congressional hearings, and some organizations and committees will make really good recommendations and those in charge will act like they are all about making sure that next time we are much more prepared and able to react more quickly and effectively. Blame will be placed. Leaders will pat themselves on the back because "if not for us, it would have been much worse". Laws and regulations will be passed. But nothing that really has a significant impact on our actual preparedness.

As a nation we do a really, really horrible job of learning from our mistakes.
 
Lemur said:
How do I know this? Because you can look investigators and labs well known in infectious disease transmission and modeling from coast to coast, and they are virtually all in agreement.
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Like 800,000 physicians telling Trump to STFU? Let's not jump to conclusions. Best to wait for a consensus. Or Fox opinion squad to chime in.

Remi said:
No. If ebola and SARS and H1N1 and Influenza A in 2017-2018 (almost 70 thousand died) combined didn't convince the powers-that-be that modest investments into stockpiles of PPE and ventilators and planning should be done, then I doubt this will.
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Boggles the mind. Let's compare the costs of a few warehouses stuffed to the rafters with PPEs just sitting there year after year just in case, and what we have now.
 
Seirende said:
Are you guys optimistic that we'll be better prepared if something with even worse morbidity and mortality rates were to start to spread in the future?
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I can say that my SHTF closet is going to be filled out quite a bit more in the future.

I feel like this pandemic has made me acutely aware of how close we are to anarchy at any given moment. People have been literally fighting over toilet paper. My local grocery store is completely unable to keep the shelves stocked with eggs, bread, pasta or rice. It's really easy to imagine how quickly things would go off the rails if there was a real supply chain disruption. Stores would be out of food in <48 hours and people would be on their own...
 
Gurby said:
I feel like this pandemic has made me acutely aware of how close we are to anarchy at any given moment. People have been literally fighting over toilet paper. My local grocery store is completely unable to keep the shelves stocked with eggs, bread, pasta or rice. It's really easy to imagine how quickly things would go off the rails if there was a real supply chain disruption. Stores would be out of food in <48 hours and people would be on their own...
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When we were getting bought out of stuff a bit ago people would come up to us at the store and ask why we weren't stocking the shelves. Um, because we don't have anything to put on the shelves?
 
Comic relief. Only in times like these, or, third world blues and screws.
BMW SUV gets stopped in police checkpoint. Flagged over, driver ordered out. As our eagle eyed reporters noticed as they went through the SUV is stuffed to the headliner with face masks. Down the road they pull over to watch.
An army convoy pulls up, pulls over, Brass gets into a discussion with police. As the discussion drags on the driver of the vehicle casually strolls off, disappearing between some houses. Army vs cops, gesticulating, it goes on and on. Maybe 10 people talking on phones at one point. Police brass drive up. Gets more complicated. SUV gets unloaded by soldiers. Police appear to not like this. About a half hour into the movie the SUV gets reloaded and a cop drives it off to a turnout. Soldiers finally leave.
1. Scalping PPEs is a given.
2. Thou shalt not question the activities of the Bangkok buck$ folks. They own the police.
3. Kick backs have apparently not been properly paid.
4. Military probably wanted the masks for their soldiers. They answer only to the PM and the junta.
5. Cops win. Pay off - kick backs all around had to have been arranged.
6. The missing driver went entirely unnoticed.

Now if only Washington DC was to operate as smoothly as this.
 
While the politics are certainly a topic that could be argued over, I prefer to think about this on a societal level.

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."

Politics didn't make people continue to play basketball and tan side by side in the park despite a city order for social distancing. Politics didn't make some people buy months worth of supplies when there was no apparent threat to said supply chains. Politics didn't make people buy and hoard nor steal from hospitals masks and hand sanitizer which is of little or limited use to them, but critical to high risk patients in the community and healthcare providers.
 
Peak said:
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."
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When people don't get a straight answer and the authorities waffle, they will get panicky. Calm clear cpable leadership without mixed signals, walk backs or hidden agendas is what prevents or dissuades people from acting cautiously and sensibly.

Talking trash: how to promote panic or get people to ignore authorities
"Anybody that needs a test can get a test."
“Within a couple of days [the number of positive cases is] going to be down to close to zero.”
"This virus is a hoax."
“Nobody could have ever seen something like this coming.”
"We’re “very close” to a vaccine."
 
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