Coronavirus Discussion Thread

[Phillyrube]

This was a war-game of an unprecedented scale, and I'm hoping we can learn from it.

I had some training up at Ft Detrick when I was doing cbrne stuff for the cops. This is exactly what would happen in a global war scenario: release an innocuous bug, and see what happens. Look at results as far as global economics, nationwide response and risk mitigation.

Then there was the war gaming at the Naval Academy in 2019.

 

[RedBlanketRunner]

Of course all the comments downplaying the virus ignore A, the mortality rate is 10-50 times higher than the seasonal flu, B, the infection rate is still on a near exponential climb and holding steadily there for around 40 days, and C, this is the first wave (which hasn't crested yet) and basic statistics all state there will be a second one.
IE An analogy being standing in a doorway during an earthquake saying 'This isn't so bad. I don't see any buildings falling down from my living room window.'

But there is an interesting paradox. The voices here are mostly those of the medics of America and America wants to ignore the disease and go on about business as usual while it leads the world in new infections. Has anyone here given thought as to what the infection and mortality rate in America would have been without the lockdown? It can be safely assumed the lockdown reduced transmission rate by at least 50%, likely quite a bit higher. In dropping the lockdown and going back about your lives could very well be the same as saying 'the Med Surg floors don't need positive pressure hallways' . Well, nobody here has worked in a hospital without those magnahelics and positive pressure hallways so you have no idea what could happen.
I'm reminded of the clinics and hospitals out on the borders here. No infection containment zone controls and it is assume every patient has a case of active TB.

 

[mgr22]

I had some training up at Ft Detrick when I was doing cbrne stuff for the cops. This is exactly what would happen in a global war scenario: release an innocuous bug, and see what happens. Look at results as far as global economics, nationwide response and risk mitigation.

Then there was the war gaming at the Naval Academy in 2019.

So there was some amount of preparation by the feds for a pandemic before this one hit?

 

[Carlos Danger]

Has anyone here given thought as to what the infection and mortality rate in America would have been without the lockdown?

Yes. Overall fatality rate looks to be around 0.1 - 0.5%. Higher in those who are statistically likely to die from other causes within a few years anyway; lower among those who are not.

It sucks, but trying to drive that number down a little is definitely not worth widespread economic destruction and violation of basic human rights, IMO. Especially when you consider the human toll of high unemployment rates.

I hate to come off as callous, but the reality is if we just stopped spending 70% of all healthcare dollars on folks who are going to die within a year anyway, it would solve a lot of economic problems and would free up a lot of money that could potentially do a lot more good.

 

[RedBlanketRunner]

Yes. Overall fatality rate looks to be around 0.1 - 0.5%.

Present C-19 mortality rate world wide is 6.4%. 4,184,742 confirmed infections, 284,078 deaths. US: 1,367,638 infections, 80,787 deaths. John Hopkins statistics.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Present C-19 mortality rate world wide is 6.4%. 4,184,742 confirmed infections, 284,078 deaths. US: 1,367,638 infections, 80,787 deaths. John Hopkins statistics.

That's the gross fatality rate - the percentage of those KNOWN to have the virus who die. That number is almost meaningless.

These were the first two hits from a 5 second Google search:

Multiple Studies Suggest COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be Lower Than Expected

The actual death toll for COVID-19 won’t be calculable for some time, but there are early indications that it may be significantly lower than calculations of deaths per confirmed cases lead one to believe.

www.biospace.com

Study Puts U.S. COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate at 1.3%

As alarming as the numbers appear, the researchers said, their estimates "may be slightly conservative."

www.healthleadersmedia.com

Pretty much the worst case REASONABLE estimates right now are that the virus kills around 1% of those who are symptomatic. Nevermind the many, many folks who get the virus but never develop significant symptoms. Again, that percentage is higher in high-risk populations, and even lower in healthy people.

It's not exactly like the seasonal flu, but it's more alike than it is different.

 

[Akulahawk]

Present C-19 mortality rate world wide is 6.4%. 4,184,742 confirmed infections, 284,078 deaths. US: 1,367,638 infections, 80,787 deaths. John Hopkins statistics.

Using those world-wide numbers, it looks more like 6.78% of known infections vs deaths. I'm going to assume that since those are the known cases and "we" think about 80% don't know they've had/have it because symptoms are so mild/non-existent that they don't get tested, it's possible that 21,900,000 (or more) have had the disease. This would mean about a 1.3% fatality rate among ALL infected persons.

It is NOT out of the realm of possibilities that this could essentially be a precursor event to a bigger problem, essentially being a test of global systems and responses to a biological agent. Is that a tin-foil hat thought? Absolutely. Even if it isn't a planned thing, this is going to be very instructive among groups that model biological warfare. This bug has a prodromal period that is too long for a good bioweapon. You want to wipe out your enemy, not your own people. Now if you're looking for a world-wide genocidal agent, then this might be a good model... just change the payload to something that has a high mortality rate vs one that's barely over 1%...

 

[RedBlanketRunner]

Lots and lots of short sighted thinking from subjective viewpoints. C-19 isn't this and hasn't that therefore... Ignoring other factors like much of the world population has endemic TB and other diseases that will inevitably compound the C-19 effects. As long as it isn't in our back yard!
Anyone giving any thought to the millions of people in refugee camps with little or no proper medical care? Sure sounds like a potential C-19 genetic pool, doesn't it? One of several no doubt. And of course the little mother nature jump-shifts like HIV and now this virus. No reason to be alarmed and change our life styles, thinking and preparedness, it can't possibly happen again.

Interesting modern day mindset:
"We demand the lockdown cease so that we can return to our usual unsustainable lifestyles that will doom most of the life on the planet in the next 100-200 years, or less. Self gratification is paramount above all else."

 

[E tank]

"We demand the lockdown cease so that we can return to our usual unsustainable lifestyles that will doom most of the life on the planet in the next 100-200 years, or less. Self gratification is paramount above all else."

It's exactly these kind of shrill, tiresome statements that have people doubting the conventional wisdom that changes daily.

 

[silver]

I hate to come off as callous, but the reality is if we just stopped spending 70% of all healthcare dollars on folks who are going to die within a year anyway, it would solve a lot of economic problems and would free up a lot of money that could potentially do a lot more good.

Nothing is more American though than doing everything possible to keep 90+ y/o old demented and bed-bound grandma alive in the ICU for months.

 

[ffemt8978]

It's exactly these kind of shrill, tiresome statements that have people doubting the conventional wisdom that changes daily.

And will make them even more doubtful the next time around.

 

[DrParasite]

How’s the Rona in y’all’s neck of the woods nowadays?

Seems like other than NYC it’s a big old dud outside of nursing homes and the severely immunocompromised.

Spoke to one of my former coworkers in central NJ last week... she said they were getting slammed, and FEMA had sent them additional ambulances to cover the rising call volume.

around here, the ERs are mostly empty. EMS call volumes are down. People are working from working remotely and staying home. I don't think its a dud, but it has highlighted how underfunded EMS and public health is for a pandemic. And how if you watch the mainstream media, you will think the sky is falling, because they are fearmongering many of their ignorant viewers.

 

[FiremanMike]

Lots and lots of short sighted thinking from subjective viewpoints. C-19 isn't this and hasn't that therefore... Ignoring other factors like much of the world population has endemic TB and other diseases that will inevitably compound the C-19 effects. As long as it isn't in our back yard!
Anyone giving any thought to the millions of people in refugee camps with little or no proper medical care? Sure sounds like a potential C-19 genetic pool, doesn't it? One of several no doubt. And of course the little mother nature jump-shifts like HIV and now this virus. No reason to be alarmed and change our life styles, thinking and preparedness, it can't possibly happen again.

Interesting modern day mindset:
"We demand the lockdown cease so that we can return to our usual unsustainable lifestyles that will doom most of the life on the planet in the next 100-200 years, or less. Self gratification is paramount above all else."

It's interesting that you sit on your shaky platform, condescendingly asserting everyone here has short sighted, subjective opinions while you are giving a short-sighted, subjective opinion.

1. Social distancing DID NOT kill the virus, nor was it ever intended to
2. When the lockdown gets lifted, if you (and the early models) are correct, we should see an explosion in infections and deaths
3. The lockdown actually has been eased and continues to be phased in over the next two weeks
4. The ACTUAL raw data, not your opinion of what it should be, is as follows

(below are rolling 7 day averages, starting yesterday and going backwards)
World growth rate over the last 7 days - 2.26%, 2.39%, 2.44%, 2.50%, 2.50%, 2.52%, 2.56%
US growth rate over the last 7 days - 1.88%, 2.12%, 2.28%, 2.42%, 2.50%, 2.56%, 2.50%

OBJECTIVELY - that is a downward trend in growth rate..

So then, here's my subjective opinion, based on the big picture - if this faux quarantine wasn't ever going to kill the virus, and we are eventually going to lift the lockdown WELL BEFORE a vaccine is available. Once the lockdown is lifted, there will be community spread and more deaths, so wasn't the quarantine just a waste of time? Sure, I'll concede that an early quarantine might have been appropriate to give the healthcare system time to get supplies and equipment, but the truth is the majority of us have been fully stocked for 6-8 weeks now, sitting on our thumbs and waiting for the explosion.

 

[Carlos Danger]

As long as it isn't in our back yard!
Anyone giving any thought to the millions of people in refugee camps with little or no proper medical care?

Yeah, I’m sure allowing people to go to their factory jobs in Detroit and get haircuts in Iowa and eat a meal out in N.C. is going to make things way worse for folks in refugee camps on the other side of the world.

 

[RedBlanketRunner]

In the mass of ridicule I see nothing about endemic TB exacerbated by C-19, not to mention other similar compounding factors. We're not talking 90 year old grandmothers here but a whole heck of a lot of young people that may carry the lung damage for the rest of their lives.

And by the way, what is with this playing god thing? Deciding that one patient is more valuable than another? Are people thinking that person is more viable and deserves better treatment?

 

[Summit]

Heard of one TB COVID patient in the state.

But I haven't seen any evidence to suggest TB is exacerbated by COVID. Can you cite?

I do get quite worried that people are reacting to effective public health mitigation results with the false conclusion that this means everything is fine and it was never going to be bad. Depending on the area I'd wager 0 (some counties) to 30% (NYC) of the population have had COVID and average population in the US has had 10% incidence cumulative. Next peaks will occur June/July depending on region and will be worse than the first because resistance to resume interventions may outweigh improved testing and PH response capability.

I also worry about communities that think that flattening the curve means squashing prevalence to 0% without considering the economic and mental health costs. That is lunacy unless you are Alaska, Hawaii, or another geographically isolated areas that can effectively enforce 14 day quarantines on new community arrivals. Otherwise one postpones the inevitable at horrific cost.

The point was always to keep prevalence from peaking above healthcare capacity, then relax opening up society as much as possible while still holding it hold it at or below capacity.

 

[Akulahawk]

In the mass of ridicule I see nothing about endemic TB exacerbated by C-19, not to mention other similar compounding factors.

Please do cite examples of this. I'd actually like to read the literature on this and learn if TB treatment has been actually changed by co-infection by SARS-CoV2.

 

[Carlos Danger]

In the mass of ridicule I see nothing about endemic TB exacerbated by C-19, not to mention other similar compounding factors. We're not talking 90 year old grandmothers here but a whole heck of a lot of young people that may carry the lung damage for the rest of their lives.

And by the way, what is with this playing god thing? Deciding that one patient is more valuable than another? Are people thinking that person is more viable and deserves better treatment?

TB endemic? Playing god? I have no idea what you are even talking about.

 

[DrParasite]

TB endemic? Playing god? I have no idea what you are even talking about.

Oh good, I thought I was the only one who was lost on what he was talking about.

 

[CCCSD]

No...you guys called it. He has...issues...